PCSO Lotto Odds: How Hard Is It to Win Each Game?

Quick answer Jackpot odds for one PCSO ticket: Ultra Lotto 6/58 is 1 in 40,475,358, Grand Lotto 6/55 is 1 in 28,989,675, Super Lotto 6/49 is 1 in 13,983,816, Mega Lotto 6/45 is 1 in 8,145,060 and Lotto 6/42 is 1 in 5,245,786. For the digit games, 6D is 1 in 1,000,000, 4D is 1 in 10,000, 3D is 1 in 1,000 and 2D is 1 in 961. On average, every game returns less than the ticket costs.

Jackpot odds for the 6-number games

In PCSO's 6-number games, you pick 6 numbers and all of them have to match, in any order. The number of possible tickets is C(n,6), "n choose 6":

C(n,6) = n × (n−1) × (n−2) × (n−3) × (n−4) × (n−5) ÷ 720, because 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 720.

Game	Working	Jackpot odds
Ultra Lotto 6/58	58×57×56×55×54×53 = 29,142,257,760 ÷ 720	1 in 40,475,358
Grand Lotto 6/55	55×54×53×52×51×50 = 20,872,566,000 ÷ 720	1 in 28,989,675
Super Lotto 6/49	49×48×47×46×45×44 = 10,068,347,520 ÷ 720	1 in 13,983,816
Mega Lotto 6/45	45×44×43×42×41×40 = 5,864,443,200 ÷ 720	1 in 8,145,060
Lotto 6/42	42×41×40×39×38×37 = 3,776,965,920 ÷ 720	1 in 5,245,786

All five figures match the odds published on PCSO's game pages. Each ticket costs ₱25 since Feb. 1, 2026 (it was ₱20), per the PCSO announcement reported by Philstar and GMA News. Game details are in our Ultra Lotto 6/58 guide and the PCSO lotto guide.

Odds for lower prizes

3, 4 or 5 matches also win. For k matches: C(6,k) × C(n−6, 6−k) ÷ C(n,6). For example, 5 matches in 6/58: 6 × 52 = 312 winning tickets, so 40,475,358 ÷ 312 = 1 in 129,729.

Game	5 of 6	4 of 6	3 of 6	Any prize
6/58	1 in 129,729	1 in 2,035	1 in 91.6	1 in 87.6
6/55	1 in 98,604	1 in 1,643	1 in 78.7	1 in 75.0
6/49	1 in 54,201	1 in 1,032	1 in 56.7	1 in 53.7
6/45	1 in 34,808	1 in 733	1 in 44.6	1 in 42.0
6/42	1 in 24,286	1 in 555	1 in 36.7	1 in 34.4

Even the smallest prize (3 of 6) is about 1 in 37 to 1 in 92. Most tickets return nothing.

Odds for 6D, 4D, 3D and 2D

Digit games use exact order, so it's just simple multiplication:

Game	Working	Top prize odds	Other plays
6D	10⁶	1 in 1,000,000	Any prize: 1 in 50
4D	10⁴	1 in 10,000	Any prize: 1 in 100
3D (Swertres)	10³	1 in 1,000	Rambolito: 1 in 166.7 or 1 in 333.3
2D (EZ2)	31 × 31 = 961	1 in 961	Rambolito: 1 in 480.5

For 2D, it's 31 × 31 because numbers can repeat (22-22 came out on May 7, 2025, 5PM, per GMA News). Full working is on each game page: 6D, 4D, Swertres 3D and EZ2 2D.

What does "1 in 40 million" mean?

40,475,358 is hard to picture. A few ways to see it:

One second in 468 days. 40,475,358 seconds ÷ 86,400 seconds per day ≈ 468 days. The jackpot is like guessing one exact second in a span of more than a year and three months.
25 heads in a row. 2²⁵ = 33,554,432. A coin landing heads 25 times in a row is still easier than hitting 6/58.
50 years of betting. One ticket every draw, 3 draws a week, is 156 tickets a year, or 7,800 in 50 years. Chance of at least one jackpot: about 7,800 ÷ 40,475,358 ≈ 0.019%, or roughly 1 in 5,190.

Expected value: how much comes back?

Expected value (EV) is the average payout per ticket over a huge number of plays: each prize × its chance, added together. Using PCSO's fixed lower prizes for 6/58 (₱120,000, ₱2,000, ₱100):

(312 × ₱120,000 + 19,890 × ₱2,000 + 442,000 × ₱100) ÷ 40,475,358 = ₱121,420,000 ÷ 40,475,358 ≈ ₱3.00 per ₱20 ticket.

A note on the EV numbers: The expected-value figures below use PCSO's pre-2026 prize table and the old ₱20 ticket for the 6-number games (archived PCSO pages, 2025). Since Feb. 1, 2026 the ticket is ₱25 and PCSO announced new minimum jackpots and consolation prizes, but we haven't verified the full new prize table yet. The odds themselves don't change. The point still stands: the average return per ticket is far below its price.

Game	Ticket	EV, lower prizes only	Plus initial jackpot
6/58	₱20	₱3.00	≈ ₱4.22
6/55	₱20	₱2.69	≈ ₱3.71
6/49	₱20	₱2.97	≈ ₱4.10
6/45	₱20	₱2.96	≈ ₱4.05
6/42	₱20	₱2.97	≈ ₱4.11
6D	₱10	≈ ₱3.03 (minimum 1st prize)
4D	₱10	≈ ₱2.62 (minimum 1st prize)
3D straight	₱10	₱4.50
2D standard	₱10	≈ ₱4.16

The "plus initial jackpot" column adds PCSO's published starting jackpot ÷ odds (e.g. ₱49,500,000 ÷ 40,475,358 ≈ ₱1.22 for 6/58). It doesn't yet include the 20% tax on prizes above ₱10,000 or prize sharing when there are several winners, both of which push it even lower. EV grows when the jackpot grows, but that doesn't change the odds. The point: every ticket has an average return far below its price. It's the same idea as RTP in casino games; see our RTP explainer.

Why past draws don't matter

The lotto machine doesn't remember the last draw. Every draw is a new random selection, so every combination has the same odds each time.

"Due" numbers: A number that hasn't come out in a long time isn't "about to." This is called the gambler's fallacy.
"Hot" numbers: Numbers that came out often recently aren't more likely to come out again.
1-2-3-4-5-6: It looks impossible, but it has the same odds as any other combination.

Remember: Lotto is paid entertainment, not an investment. Set a budget and don't chase losses. More in our Laro Nang Tama guide.

If it's not fun anymore

PAGCOR National Problem Gambling Helpline: (02) 8248-9568
Open 24/7. Free and confidential. If you're betting to "win it back," or you're already using money meant for bills, call. Family members can call too.

FAQ

What is the hardest PCSO lotto game?

Ultra Lotto 6/58, with jackpot odds of 1 in 40,475,358. That's the number of ways to choose 6 numbers from 1 to 58.

What are the easiest odds in PCSO lotto?

2D Lotto (EZ2), at 1 in 961 on a standard play, followed by 3D Lotto (Swertres) at 1 in 1,000. Their prizes are also smaller.

Do my chances go up if I've been playing the same numbers for a long time?

No. Each draw is independent. Your odds tonight are the same no matter how many years you've been playing those numbers.

How are the 6/58 odds calculated?

Using combinations: C(58,6) = (58 × 57 × 56 × 55 × 54 × 53) ÷ (6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1) = 29,142,257,760 ÷ 720 = 40,475,358.

What is expected value in lotto?

It's the average a ticket pays back over a huge number of plays. In the PCSO games we calculated, it's lower than the ticket price, so in the long run, players lose on average.

Sources

Philstar, Lotto ticket prices now P25 (Jan. 30, 2026) and GMA News (Jan. 30, 2026): ₱25 per bet from Feb. 1, 2026
PCSO, Ultra Lotto 6/58 game page (archived November 23, 2025; ₱20 ticket, published odds, lower-tier prizes, initial jackpot)
PCSO, Grand Lotto 6/55 game page (archived November 19, 2025)
PCSO, Super Lotto 6/49 game page (archived December 13, 2025)
PCSO, Mega Lotto 6/45 game page (archived February 1, 2026)
PCSO, Lotto 6/42 game page (archived September 19, 2025)
PCSO, 6D Lotto game page (archived copy dated September 13, 2026; how to play, price, prize tiers, draw schedule, age rule, where to claim, TRAIN tax note)
PCSO, 4D Lotto game page (archived copy dated August 31, 2026; play types, perm/roll costs, prize tiers, draw schedule, age rule, where to claim)
PCSO, 3D Lotto game page (archived copy dated November 28, 2025; straight and rambolito prizes, draw times, age rule, where to claim)
PCSO, 2D Lotto game page (archived copy dated December 31, 2025; number field 1 to 31, play amounts, standard and rambolito prizes, draw times, where to claim)
GMA News, 2D 5PM Lotto Results, May 7, 2025 (winning combination 22-22, showing the same number can come out twice)
Note: pcso.gov.ph blocked our direct requests while we were writing, so we read the archived copies linked here. Always confirm the latest rules on pcso.gov.ph.

Kassandra Marcos is SugarFun's lead reviewer. She checks every site against PAGCOR's official list and writes our game and responsible gaming guides. How we test